FAQ
Questions about the event list
What the numbers mean, how to read them and where the judgment comes in.
What is a Universal Suffering Unit?
A USU expresses an amount of experienced suffering using an assumed intensity and duration. For this event list, one USU is a stipulated six-hour kidney-stone pain reference totaling 47.25 intensity-hours. It gives us a common unit; it does not establish that different experiences are equivalent.
Why introduce a new unit?
Case counts describe how many cases are reported; death counts describe lives lost. Neither on its own describes how intensely people suffer or for how long. USU combines the number of people or episodes with an assumed intensity and duration, so different experiences can be expressed on a common scale.
A reference pain episode makes that scale more concrete than an unexplained score. Our kidney-stone reference is modeled over six hours; it is a convention for defining the unit, not an established average of clinical episodes. The reference does not validate the assumed equivalence between different forms of suffering. USU is experimental and complements the other statistics shown in each report.
How is an event’s USU estimate calculated?
We multiply a reported population or case count by an assumed average duration and intensity, then divide by the reference unit:
USU = count × days × 24 × intensity ÷ 47.25
Every condition has one shared template. All dengue entries, for example, use five days at average intensity 3 out of 10. Each report shows its arithmetic and the basis for those choices.
How can these estimates help in practice?
They offer a starting point for comparing the scale of suffering across events. Readers can put news in perspective, journalists can explain an event’s human impact, and researchers can identify important experiences that are poorly measured or missing from public discussion.
For people deciding where to direct attention or support, these estimates are one input. Choosing an effective response also requires evidence about what help is available, what it costs and how much suffering it could prevent. An event’s USU estimate alone cannot answer those questions.
Can I compare two events using these numbers?
Yes, as estimates of the experiences included in each report under a common model. A larger number means more modeled suffering within that scope. Read the reporting period, population and included experience first: an acute disease course and a month of displacement cover different things.
The assumptions and surveillance coverage can change the comparison substantially. Even when two reports use the same disease template, they may count different kinds of cases. The table is a starting point for comparison, not a settled ranking of total harm.
Does the number cover all suffering caused by an event?
No. Each entry names what it includes. Dengue entries cover acute symptoms; the flood entries cover an assumed initial period of displacement distress. Later illness, caregiver distress, bereavement and other consequences may be outside that estimate.
Unestimated does not mean zero. The figures are neither complete totals nor guaranteed lower bounds. Do not add event list rows: people and reporting periods can overlap.
Why are deaths shown separately?
USU concerns experienced suffering during lived time. A death count describes a different, essential aspect of harm, which this calculation does not convert into USU. Both appear together so that a reader does not mistake either for the whole picture.
A report also explains whether its death count covers the modeled population or a broader event. No suffering after death is assigned.
How reliable are the intensity and duration assumptions?
They are provisional and can be substantially wrong. Sources provide reported counts, clinical duration ranges and descriptions of distress. The exact average intensity is our judgment, not a measured conversion supplied by WHO, CDC or another source.
We use a simple representative course to keep the calculation inspectable. Intensity averages across the whole elapsed day, including relief and sleep. Each report also shows how two alternative assumptions change the estimate. Those examples are not confidence intervals.
Why these seven events?
This is a small proof of concept, selected for identifiable public sources and conditions we can describe with a shared template. It is not a representative sample of global suffering or a list of the world’s worst events.
Version 0.2 expands the initial four entries to include Pakistan floods, Bangladesh dengue and Mexico dengue. The three numerical condition templates are unchanged.
How do the visual briefs relate to the event list?
The event list contains event-specific USU estimates. Our background guides explain broader statistics such as displacement, mortality, hunger and water access. They may cover different places and years, and some topics do not yet have a event list entry.
Where useful, an event report links to a relevant guide. A guide’s headline statistics are not automatically inputs to that event’s calculation.
Why do earlier USU research pilots show different figures?
The earlier pilots tested different approaches and time bases, including daily and population-adjusted estimates. Their original values remain available as research background. The current event list uses one cumulative formula and should not be combined directly with those pilot outputs.
Can I inspect the inputs or suggest a correction?
Yes. Each report links to its sources, and the event list offers CSV and JSON downloads with the counts, assumptions and mortality notes. A shared-template revision applies to every linked event.
To flag a source error or calculation issue, use our corrections page. Explain which event and input you mean and include a supporting source where possible.