Natural disaster
Experimental estimate · v0.2Initial displacement distress
Whole flood event, as of 24 May. Source context
displaced people
Approximate, assumption-based USU for the included experience. Deaths are a separate measure.
Reading the result
The model assigns about 30.5 USU per displaced person over an assumed 30-day course. Duration drives much of the estimate: a modest average intensity can accumulate over several weeks. This is a scenario for the named cohort; the source did not track each person for 30 days.
The duration and intensity assigned to displacement distress have the weakest evidence basis in this event list. They are a starting scenario, not observed cohort averages.
The calculation
30.5 USU per modeled course, before multiplying by the reported count. The calculation uses unrounded values; only the headline is rounded.
Intensity is assigned on a 0–10 scale and averaged over the whole elapsed course, including relief and sleep. Why divide by 47.25?
We assign the same 30-day initial course to each reported flood-displaced person. Continuing displacement in Brazil in June 2024 and difficult conditions in Pakistan in October 2022 support a multiweek scenario. Neither source measures a 30-day cohort mean; keeping the same course is a consistency choice, not evidence that recovery takes equally long. [S6] [S10]
WHO describes anxiety, sadness, sleep problems and other distress after emergencies. Assigned intensity 2 represents a modest whole-day average across the selected cohort, including relief and people with little distress. This provisional mapping to the pain reference is especially weak; WHO supplies no numeric conversion. [S7]
At 14 days and intensity 1, the result is about 4.1 million USU. At 60 days and intensity 3, it is about 53.0 million USU.
These are alternative input scenarios, not confidence intervals or bounds on all uncertainty. Some cross-condition orderings change under these choices. The headline uses the single shared template above.
Coverage
One initial distress course for each person in the reported displaced cohort, combining anxiety, sadness and disrupted daily life.
UNHCR spokesperson, UN Geneva briefing, 24 May 2024: approximately 580,000 displaced people. The estimate uses the specific spoken figure rather than the rounded 600,000 headline. This is a dated population estimate, not new displacement episodes, an average daily population, or a final event total. People in shelters are a subset of this displaced cohort and are not added again. [S5]
Injury and disease episodes, bereavement, later mental-health effects, distress outside the selected cohort and post-death loss.
Omitted experiences are unestimated, not known to be zero. This is not a complete event total or a guaranteed lower bound.
Whole representative courses are assigned to the source-defined cases or cohort. Course time can extend beyond the reporting dates. Individual trajectories, fatal-case truncation and a causal baseline are not reconstructed; no suffering after death is assigned.
Deaths remain separate
163 deaths cited in the 24 May briefing; separate from USU. [S5]
USU estimates experienced suffering during lived time. The death count is shown alongside it and is not converted into USU.
Trace the estimate
Approximately 7.9 million people displaced and at least 1,700 deaths. Describes continuing disruption; no measured average duration or intensity.
Approximate 580,000 displaced population. Headline rounds to 600,000; model uses the specific spoken figure.
Continuing displacement and delayed returns support investigating a multiweek window, not a measured mean duration.
Qualitative basis for distress inclusion. Neither numeric intensity nor transfer from pain is established; conflict-specific disorder prevalence is not used.
Stipulated six-hour kidney-stone reference: 47.25 modeled intensity-hours, with linear weighting. This convention defines the unit; it is not a measured equivalence between conditions.
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