Acute chikungunya illness
6,891 cases
8 days × average intensity 4
6,891 × 8 × 24 × 4 ÷ 47.25
112,006.1 USU16.25 USU per assigned course
Disease outbreak
Experimental estimate · v0.10Mauritius chikungunya: illness beyond the death count
Estimated USU0.11 million
Acute illness only
Reported deaths0 reported
Inferred from the regional summary. Source context
Population modeled6,891
reported cases
A dated estimate using shared assumptions. Persistent joint pain is outside this number. What is included?
Reading the result
A death toll does not capture all the harm
Applying WSI’s existing acute chikungunya assumptions gives about 112,000 USU. This is an illustration of substantial modeled suffering even when no deaths are reported.
Chikungunya can cause disabling joint symptoms. Some people also experience pain for months or years, but our current course covers only the initial illness. [S4] A later estimate of persistent pain would need its own evidence about how many people experience it and for how long.
The result is an assumption-based estimate, not a measurement of these patients’ pain. It does not place a value on death or on lost life years.
The calculation
One acute course per reported case
We reuse the ordinary course from the Paraguay chikungunya report. There is no separate fatal component in this snapshot.
The exact model result is 112,006.095238 USU to six decimal places. Display rounding does not enter the calculation. Why divide by 47.25?
Why eight days and intensity 4?
CDC describes an acute symptom period of about 7–10 days, with potentially severe joint symptoms. [S4] Eight days is our representative choice, not a measured average for this outbreak.
Intensity 4 is one combined average on the 0–10 scale across the whole course, allowing for relief, sleep and intervals without experience. It bundles concurrent symptoms once. The value, and its relation to kidney-stone pain, are provisional judgments. The clinical source does not establish this conversion.
How much do the assumptions change the result?
- 7 days at intensity 4: 98,005 USU (Shorter acute course)
- 8 days at intensity 3: 84,005 USU (Lower average intensity)
- 8 days at intensity 4: 112,006 USU (Central assumption)
- 8 days at intensity 5: 140,008 USU (Higher average intensity)
- 10 days at intensity 4: 140,008 USU (Longer acute course)
These change one input at a time. They are illustrations, not confidence intervals or a complete range. Unreported cases and persistent symptoms remain outside each calculation.
Coverage
What goes into this number?
Included
One representative acute course for each reported case. Actual severity and recovery time vary; individual histories are not reconstructed.
Source and timing
ECDC’s week-40 report gives the Mauritius and Rodrigues count in an update using data available through 30 August, collected on 22–24 September. It does not specify an exact national cutoff. [S31]
Outside this estimate
Persistent or recurrent joint pain after the assigned course, unreported illness, caregiver distress, bereavement, death itself and lost life years. These are unestimated, not assumed to be zero.
Case labels and comparisons
We retain the source’s reported-case label rather than calling every case laboratory-confirmed or locally acquired. Its country paragraph does not provide those breakdowns. ECDC cautions that surveillance and case definitions differ between countries. [S31]
The same calculation helps explain the modeled experience. It does not make the Mauritius and Paraguay populations equally well observed or support a ranking of their complete outbreak burdens.
This is not a live October total. Full assigned courses may extend beyond the reporting cutoff. No future cases or deaths are imputed, and the result is not a guaranteed lower bound.
Deaths remain separate
What “0 reported” means here
ECDC reports no associated deaths in its Africa summary, which includes Mauritius. We infer none reported for Mauritius within that summary; this is not an independently verified national mortality total. [S31]
No reported fatal cases in this snapshot
We assign no fatal course and do not assume that every death was detected or every case had recovered. If an aligned count of attributable deaths becomes available, the shared fatal course would replace the ordinary course for those cases. It would not be added on top.
Trace the estimate
Sources and calculation data
- [S31] ECDC. Communicable Disease Threats Report, week 40, 26 September to 2 October 2026, pp. 31–33.
Dated chikungunya snapshot: 6,891 cases for Mauritius and Rodrigues. The Africa summary reports no associated deaths; WSI infers none reported for Mauritius within that summary. Data available through 30 August; country reporting dates can differ.
- [S4] CDC. Clinical Signs and Symptoms of Chikungunya Virus Disease. 15 May 2024.
Severe/debilitating joint symptoms and typical 7-10-day acute course; no USU conversion.
- [S8] WSI event list v0.10: USU reference convention (unchanged from v0.1).
Stipulated six-hour kidney-stone reference: 47.25 modeled intensity-hours, with linear weighting. This convention defines the unit; it is not a measured equivalence between conditions.