5 days
WHO describes acute symptoms lasting 2-7 days. Five days is a rounded representative choice inside that interval, not a measured mean for any listed outbreak. Later fatigue is excluded. [S2]
Disease outbreak
Experimental estimate · v0.2Bangladesh dengue outbreak
Estimated USU0.53 million
Acute dengue symptoms
Reported deaths327
Same reporting period. Source context
Population modeled69,483
lab-confirmed cases
Approximate, assumption-based USU for the included experience. Deaths are a separate measure.
Reading the result
What this estimate tells us
The same five-day, intensity-3 dengue course gives about 7.6 USU per reported case. This entry covers laboratory-confirmed cases from hospital-based surveillance; the estimate cannot be read as the full outbreak burden.
The calculation
The inputs behind the estimate
69,483 × 5 days × 24 hours × 3 ÷ 47.25
≈ 0.53 million USU
≈ 0.53 million USU
7.6 USU per modeled course, before multiplying by the reported count. The calculation uses unrounded values; only the headline is rounded.
Intensity is assigned on a 0–10 scale and averaged over the whole elapsed course, including relief and sleep. Why divide by 47.25?
3 / 10
Fever, headache, body/joint aches and nausea support a meaningful acute symptom burden. Assigned intensity 3 is a working average across the whole day, including relief and sleep. It is lower than a severe-pain peak. WHO does not establish the value 3 or its ratio to the reference. [S2]
All dengue entries share this exact template. A revision applies to every linked entry. Case definitions and reporting coverage still differ across sources.
How much can the assumptions change the result?
At 3 days and intensity 2, the result is about 0.21 million USU. At 7 days and intensity 4, it is about 0.99 million USU.
These are alternative input scenarios, not confidence intervals or bounds on all uncertainty. Some cross-condition orderings change under these choices. The headline uses the single shared template above.
Coverage
What goes into this number?
Included
A single acute symptom course for every reported case, combining fever, aches, headache and nausea.
Source population and period
WHO reported 69,483 laboratory-confirmed cases from 1 January to 7 August 2023. The surveillance system is hospital-based. This is an interim snapshot, not a full-year count or an estimate of all infections. [S9]
Outside this estimate
Later fatigue, prolonged recovery, separate severe-case templates, caregiver distress, unreported infections and post-death loss.
Omitted experiences are unestimated, not known to be zero. This is not a complete event total or a guaranteed lower bound.
Whole representative courses are assigned to the source-defined cases or cohort. Course time can extend beyond the reporting dates. Individual trajectories, fatal-case truncation and a causal baseline are not reconstructed; no suffering after death is assigned.
Deaths remain separate
Mortality source context
WHO reported 327 related deaths for the same period; separate from USU. [S9]
USU estimates experienced suffering during lived time. The death count is shown alongside it and is not converted into USU.
Trace the estimate
Sources and calculation data
- [S2] WHO. Dengue. Fact sheet, 21 August 2025, Symptoms section.
Acute symptom descriptions and 2-7-day duration context; does not estimate an average USU intensity.
- [S8] WSI event list v0.2: USU reference convention (unchanged from v0.1).
Stipulated six-hour kidney-stone reference: 47.25 modeled intensity-hours, with linear weighting. This convention defines the unit; it is not a measured equivalence between conditions.
- [S9] WHO. Disease Outbreak News: Dengue: Bangladesh. 11 August 2023.
69,483 laboratory-confirmed cases and 327 related deaths, 1 January–7 August 2023. Describes hospital-based surveillance.