5 days
WHO describes acute symptoms lasting 2-7 days. Five days is a rounded representative choice inside that interval, not a measured mean for any listed outbreak. Later fatigue is excluded. [S2]
Disease outbreak
Experimental estimate · v0.2Peru dengue outbreak
Estimated USU1.9 million
Acute dengue symptoms
Reported deaths207
Source discrepancy: summary says 203. Source context
Population modeled249,843
reported cases
Approximate, assumption-based USU for the included experience. Deaths are a separate measure.
Reading the result
What this estimate tells us
The model assigns about 7.6 USU to each reported case. Peru and Brazil use exactly the same dengue assumptions, so the difference between these two estimates comes entirely from their reported case counts.
The calculation
The inputs behind the estimate
249,843 × 5 days × 24 hours × 3 ÷ 47.25
≈ 1.9 million USU
≈ 1.9 million USU
7.6 USU per modeled course, before multiplying by the reported count. The calculation uses unrounded values; only the headline is rounded.
Intensity is assigned on a 0–10 scale and averaged over the whole elapsed course, including relief and sleep. Why divide by 47.25?
3 / 10
Fever, headache, body/joint aches and nausea support a meaningful acute symptom burden. Assigned intensity 3 is a working average across the whole day, including relief and sleep. It is lower than a severe-pain peak. WHO does not establish the value 3 or its ratio to the reference. [S2]
All dengue entries share this exact template. A revision applies to every linked entry. Case definitions and reporting coverage still differ across sources.
How much can the assumptions change the result?
At 3 days and intensity 2, the result is about 0.76 million USU. At 7 days and intensity 4, it is about 3.6 million USU.
These are alternative input scenarios, not confidence intervals or bounds on all uncertainty. Some cross-condition orderings change under these choices. The headline uses the single shared template above.
Coverage
What goes into this number?
Included
A single acute symptom course for every reported case, combining fever, aches, headache and nausea.
Source population and period
PAHO/WHO, 18 June 2024, p. 4: 249,843 reported cases through EW 23. The Andean series is described as suspected cases. No correction for missed or misclassified cases is applied. [S1]
Outside this estimate
Later fatigue, prolonged recovery, separate severe-case templates, caregiver distress, unreported infections and post-death loss.
Omitted experiences are unestimated, not known to be zero. This is not a complete event total or a guaranteed lower bound.
Whole representative courses are assigned to the source-defined cases or cohort. Course time can extend beyond the reporting dates. Individual trajectories, fatal-case truncation and a causal baseline are not reconstructed; no suffering after death is assigned.
Deaths remain separate
Mortality source context
207 fatal cases on p. 4, consistent with its reported case-fatality rate; the p. 1 summary instead says 203. This source inconsistency is retained here and does not enter USU. [S1]
The country detail on page 4 reports 207 deaths; the summary on page 1 says 203. This report uses the country detail and keeps the discrepancy visible. Neither figure enters the USU calculation.
USU estimates experienced suffering during lived time. The death count is shown alongside it and is not converted into USU.
Trace the estimate
Sources and calculation data
- [S1] PAHO/WHO. Epidemiological Update: Increase in dengue cases in the Region of the Americas. 18 June 2024, pp. 2–4 and 6.
Reported cases, deaths and coverage for Brazil, Peru and Mexico. These counts do not establish USU intensities.
- [S2] WHO. Dengue. Fact sheet, 21 August 2025, Symptoms section.
Acute symptom descriptions and 2-7-day duration context; does not estimate an average USU intensity.
- [S8] WSI event list v0.2: USU reference convention (unchanged from v0.1).
Stipulated six-hour kidney-stone reference: 47.25 modeled intensity-hours, with linear weighting. This convention defines the unit; it is not a measured equivalence between conditions.