{ "version": "0.2", "date": "5 October 2026", "reference": 47.25, "hoursPerDay": 24, "profiles": [ { "id": "DEN", "name": "Dengue: acute symptoms", "days": 5, "intensity": 3, "durationBasis": "WHO describes acute symptoms lasting 2-7 days. Five days is a rounded representative choice inside that interval, not a measured mean for any listed outbreak. Later fatigue is excluded. [S2]", "intensityBasis": "Fever, headache, body/joint aches and nausea support a meaningful acute symptom burden. Assigned intensity 3 is a working average across the whole day, including relief and sleep. It is lower than a severe-pain peak. WHO does not establish the value 3 or its ratio to the reference. [S2]", "excludes": "Later fatigue, prolonged recovery, separate severe-case templates, caregiver distress, unreported infections and post-death loss.", "lowDays": 3, "lowIntensity": 2, "highDays": 7, "highIntensity": 4 }, { "id": "DIS", "name": "Flood displacement: initial distress", "days": 30, "intensity": 2, "durationBasis": "We assign the same 30-day initial course to each reported flood-displaced person. Continuing displacement in Brazil in June 2024 and difficult conditions in Pakistan in October 2022 support a multiweek scenario. Neither source measures a 30-day cohort mean; keeping the same course is a consistency choice, not evidence that recovery takes equally long. [S6, S10]", "intensityBasis": "WHO describes anxiety, sadness, sleep problems and other distress after emergencies. Assigned intensity 2 represents a modest whole-day average across the selected cohort, including relief and people with little distress. This provisional mapping to the pain reference is especially weak; WHO supplies no numeric conversion. [S7]", "excludes": "Injury and disease episodes, bereavement, later mental-health effects, distress outside the selected cohort and post-death loss.", "lowDays": 14, "lowIntensity": 1, "highDays": 60, "highIntensity": 3 }, { "id": "CHIK", "name": "Chikungunya: acute symptoms", "days": 8, "intensity": 4, "durationBasis": "CDC describes acute symptoms typically resolving within 7-10 days. Eight days is a rounded representative choice inside that interval, not the observed mean for this outbreak. Persistent joint symptoms are excluded. [S4]", "intensityBasis": "CDC describes potentially severe, debilitating joint symptoms; Paraguay's adult suspected-case definition included incapacitating joint pain or arthritis. These support testing a higher average than dengue. Assigned intensity 4, and the 4:3 ratio, remain model judgments rather than measured equivalence. [S3, S4]", "excludes": "Persistent/recurrent joint pain, rare complications as separate profiles, caregiver distress, unreported infections and post-death loss.", "lowDays": 7, "lowIntensity": 3, "highDays": 10, "highIntensity": 5 } ], "events": [ { "id": "E01", "name": "Brazil dengue outbreak", "short": "Brazil dengue", "period": "2024, epidemiological weeks 1-23", "count": 7866769, "unit": "reported cases", "profile": "DEN", "source": "S1", "scope": "Acute symptom courses assigned to reported cases", "countBasis": "PAHO/WHO, 18 June 2024, p. 6: 7,866,769 reported cases through EW 23. The regional surveillance series includes suspected cases; this is not a laboratory-confirmed-only count. No correction for missed or misclassified cases is applied.", "deaths": "3,643 reported fatal cases in the same source; separate from USU.", "cardNote": "One acute template across reported cases; later fatigue and distinct severe courses are unestimated.", "slug": "brazil-dengue-2024", "location": "Brazil", "category": "Disease outbreak", "periodShort": "2024 · weeks 1–23", "dateKey": 202423, "scopeShort": "Acute dengue symptoms", "deathCount": 3643, "deathNote": "Same reporting period", "countShort": "7.87 million", "unitShort": "reported cases", "included": "A single acute symptom course for every reported case, combining fever, aches, headache and nausea.", "takeaway": "The model assigns about 7.6 USU to each reported case. Applied to 7.87 million reported cases, this produces a large aggregate estimate even though the assumed acute course lasts only five days.", "related": "/reports/dengue-in-the-americas/", "relatedTitle": "Dengue in the Americas: understanding the reported measures", "usuPerCourse": 7.619047619047619, "estimatedUSU": 59937287.61904762 }, { "id": "E02", "name": "Rio Grande do Sul floods", "short": "Rio Grande do Sul floods", "period": "2024, displaced cohort reported 24 May", "count": 580000, "unit": "people displaced (approx.)", "profile": "DIS", "source": "S5", "scope": "Initial distress assigned to a reported displaced cohort", "countBasis": "UNHCR spokesperson, UN Geneva briefing, 24 May 2024: approximately 580,000 displaced people. The estimate uses the specific spoken figure rather than the rounded 600,000 headline. This is a dated population estimate, not new displacement episodes, an average daily population, or a final event total. People in shelters are a subset of this displaced cohort and are not added again.", "deaths": "163 deaths cited in the 24 May briefing; separate from USU.", "cardNote": "30 days is an assumed course for the selected cohort, not measured person-time or the full flood burden.", "slug": "rio-grande-do-sul-floods-2024", "location": "Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil", "category": "Natural disaster", "periodShort": "24 May 2024 · cohort snapshot", "dateKey": 202421, "scopeShort": "Initial displacement distress", "deathCount": 163, "deathNote": "Whole flood event, as of 24 May", "countShort": "About 580,000", "unitShort": "displaced people", "included": "One initial distress course for each person in the reported displaced cohort, combining anxiety, sadness and disrupted daily life.", "takeaway": "The model assigns about 30.5 USU per displaced person over an assumed 30-day course. Duration drives much of the estimate: a modest average intensity can accumulate over several weeks. This is a scenario for the named cohort; the source did not track each person for 30 days.", "related": "/reports/displacement-is-not-one-number/", "relatedTitle": "Displacement is not one number: understanding stocks and movements", "usuPerCourse": 30.476190476190474, "estimatedUSU": 17676190.476190474 }, { "id": "E03", "name": "Paraguay chikungunya outbreak", "short": "Paraguay chikungunya", "period": "1 October 2022 - 11 March 2023", "count": 81037, "unit": "suspected, probable or confirmed cases", "profile": "CHIK", "source": "S3", "scope": "Acute symptom courses assigned to reported cases", "countBasis": "Torales et al., CDC MMWR, 9 June 2023: 81,037 suspected, probable or confirmed cases during 1 October 2022-11 March 2023. Discarded negative-tested cases are excluded by the source. This is an interim outbreak count, not the final 2023 total.", "deaths": "52 attributable deaths among 47,116 probable/confirmed cases, a narrower subset than the modeled case count; separate from USU.", "cardNote": "Acute symptoms only. Persistent joint pain, which can last months or years, is unestimated.", "slug": "paraguay-chikungunya-2022-2023", "location": "Paraguay", "category": "Disease outbreak", "periodShort": "1 Oct 2022 – 11 Mar 2023", "dateKey": 202310, "scopeShort": "Acute chikungunya symptoms", "deathCount": 52, "deathNote": "Probable / confirmed subset", "countShort": "81,037", "unitShort": "reported cases", "included": "A single acute symptom course for each suspected, probable or confirmed case, with incapacitating joint symptoms represented within one combined intensity.", "takeaway": "The model assigns about 16.3 USU per reported case using eight days at intensity 4. Persistent joint pain is outside this estimate, so the report measures the acute course only.", "related": "/usu-research/", "relatedTitle": "Explore the USU research background", "usuPerCourse": 16.253968253968253, "estimatedUSU": 1317172.8253968253 }, { "id": "E04", "name": "Peru dengue outbreak", "short": "Peru dengue", "period": "2024, epidemiological weeks 1-23", "count": 249843, "unit": "reported cases", "profile": "DEN", "source": "S1", "scope": "Acute symptom courses assigned to reported cases", "countBasis": "PAHO/WHO, 18 June 2024, p. 4: 249,843 reported cases through EW 23. The Andean series is described as suspected cases. No correction for missed or misclassified cases is applied.", "deaths": "207 fatal cases on p. 4, consistent with its reported case-fatality rate; the p. 1 summary instead says 203. This source inconsistency is retained here and does not enter USU.", "cardNote": "Uses exactly the same duration and intensity assumptions as Brazil dengue.", "slug": "peru-dengue-2024", "location": "Peru", "category": "Disease outbreak", "periodShort": "2024 · weeks 1–23", "dateKey": 202423, "scopeShort": "Acute dengue symptoms", "deathCount": 207, "deathNote": "Source discrepancy: summary says 203", "countShort": "249,843", "unitShort": "reported cases", "included": "A single acute symptom course for every reported case, combining fever, aches, headache and nausea.", "takeaway": "The model assigns about 7.6 USU to each reported case. Peru and Brazil use exactly the same dengue assumptions, so the difference between these two estimates comes entirely from their reported case counts.", "related": "/reports/dengue-in-the-americas/", "relatedTitle": "Dengue in the Americas: understanding the reported measures", "usuPerCourse": 7.619047619047619, "estimatedUSU": 1903565.714285714 }, { "id": "E05", "name": "Bangladesh dengue outbreak", "short": "Bangladesh dengue", "period": "1 January – 7 August 2023", "count": 69483, "unit": "laboratory-confirmed cases", "profile": "DEN", "source": "S9", "scope": "Acute symptom courses assigned to reported cases", "countBasis": "WHO reported 69,483 laboratory-confirmed cases from 1 January to 7 August 2023. The surveillance system is hospital-based. This is an interim snapshot, not a full-year count or an estimate of all infections.", "deaths": "WHO reported 327 related deaths for the same period; separate from USU.", "cardNote": "Uses the shared dengue course. Laboratory-confirmed, hospital-based surveillance has a different coverage from the Americas series.", "slug": "bangladesh-dengue-2023", "location": "Bangladesh", "category": "Disease outbreak", "periodShort": "1 Jan – 7 Aug 2023", "dateKey": 202332, "scopeShort": "Acute dengue symptoms", "deathCount": 327, "deathNote": "Same reporting period", "countShort": "69,483", "unitShort": "lab-confirmed cases", "included": "A single acute symptom course for every reported case, combining fever, aches, headache and nausea.", "takeaway": "The same five-day, intensity-3 dengue course gives about 7.6 USU per reported case. This entry covers laboratory-confirmed cases from hospital-based surveillance; the estimate cannot be read as the full outbreak burden.", "related": "/events/methodology/#templates", "relatedTitle": "The shared dengue assumptions", "usuPerCourse": 7.619047619047619, "estimatedUSU": 529394.2857142857 }, { "id": "E06", "name": "Pakistan floods", "short": "Pakistan floods", "period": "2022 floods, displaced population reported 7 October", "count": 7900000, "unit": "people displaced (approx.)", "profile": "DIS", "source": "S10", "scope": "Initial distress assigned to a reported displaced cohort", "countBasis": "UNHCR’s 7 October 2022 briefing reported approximately 7.9 million people displaced. We assign one initial course to that source-defined population. It is not measured person-time or a count of new daily movements. The nearly 600,000 people in relief sites are a subset and are not added again.", "deaths": "At least 1,700 deaths were cited in the 7 October briefing for the flood event as a whole. This is a reported threshold, not an exact final death count; it is separate from USU.", "cardNote": "30 days is an assumed course for the selected cohort, not measured person-time or the full flood burden.", "slug": "pakistan-floods-2022", "location": "Pakistan", "category": "Natural disaster", "periodShort": "7 Oct 2022 · population snapshot", "dateKey": 202240, "scopeShort": "Initial displacement distress", "deathCount": 1700, "deathNote": "Whole flood event, as reported 7 Oct", "countShort": "About 7.9 million", "unitShort": "displaced people", "included": "One initial distress course for each person in the reported displaced cohort, combining anxiety, sadness and disrupted daily life.", "takeaway": "Applying the same initial displacement course used for Rio Grande do Sul gives about 30.5 USU per person. The large population drives the result. Injury, disease and lasting psychological effects remain outside this estimate; 30 days is assumed, not observed follow-up.", "related": "/reports/displacement-is-not-one-number/", "relatedTitle": "Displacement is not one number: understanding stocks and movements", "deathDisplay": "At least 1,700", "usuPerCourse": 30.476190476190474, "estimatedUSU": 240761904.76190475 }, { "id": "E07", "name": "Mexico dengue outbreak", "short": "Mexico dengue", "period": "2024, epidemiological weeks 1-23", "count": 83997, "unit": "reported cases", "profile": "DEN", "source": "S1", "scope": "Acute symptom courses assigned to reported cases", "countBasis": "PAHO/WHO, 18 June 2024, pp. 2–3: 83,997 reported cases through EW 23. The regional surveillance series includes suspected cases; it is not laboratory-confirmed only. No correction for missed or misclassified cases is applied.", "deaths": "PAHO reported 26 fatal cases through EW 23 on p. 3; separate from USU.", "cardNote": "One acute template across reported cases; later fatigue and distinct severe courses are unestimated.", "slug": "mexico-dengue-2024", "location": "Mexico", "category": "Disease outbreak", "periodShort": "2024 · weeks 1–23", "dateKey": 202423, "scopeShort": "Acute dengue symptoms", "deathCount": 26, "deathNote": "Same reporting period", "countShort": "83,997", "unitShort": "reported cases", "included": "A single acute symptom course for every reported case, combining fever, aches, headache and nausea.", "takeaway": "The same five-day, intensity-3 dengue course gives about 7.6 USU per reported case. Mexico, Peru and Brazil share both the source update and condition template; their differences here are driven by reported counts, not country-specific intensity judgments.", "related": "/reports/dengue-in-the-americas/", "relatedTitle": "Dengue in the Americas: understanding the reported measures", "usuPerCourse": 7.619047619047619, "estimatedUSU": 639977.1428571428 } ], "sources": [ { "id": "S1", "title": "PAHO/WHO. Epidemiological Update: Increase in dengue cases in the Region of the Americas. 18 June 2024, pp. 2–4 and 6.", "url": "https://www.paho.org/sites/default/files/2024-06/2024-june-18-phe-epi-update-dengue-en2.pdf", "role": "Reported cases, deaths and coverage for Brazil, Peru and Mexico. These counts do not establish USU intensities." }, { "id": "S2", "title": "WHO. Dengue. Fact sheet, 21 August 2025, Symptoms section.", "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dengue-and-severe-dengue", "role": "Acute symptom descriptions and 2-7-day duration context; does not estimate an average USU intensity." }, { "id": "S3", "title": "Torales M et al. Chikungunya Outbreak - Paraguay, 2022-2023. CDC MMWR 2023;72:636-638. 9 June 2023.", "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7223a5.htm", "role": "81,037 reported cases, reporting dates and case definitions; mortality subset distinction." }, { "id": "S4", "title": "CDC. Clinical Signs and Symptoms of Chikungunya Virus Disease. 15 May 2024.", "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/chikungunya/hcp/clinical-signs/index.html", "role": "Severe/debilitating joint symptoms and typical 7-10-day acute course; no USU conversion." }, { "id": "S5", "title": "UN Geneva / UNHCR-WMO. Brazil floods briefing. 24 May 2024, UNHCR spokesperson soundbite.", "url": "https://www.unognewsroom.org/story/en/2183/brazil-floods-unhcr-wmo/6577", "role": "Approximate 580,000 displaced population. Headline rounds to 600,000; model uses the specific spoken figure." }, { "id": "S6", "title": "UNICEF. Brazil Humanitarian Situation Report No. 1, Rio Grande do Sul Floods. 26 June 2024, pp. 1-2 and 9.", "url": "https://www.unicef.org/documents/brazil-humanitarian-situation-report-rio-grande-do-sul-floods-26-june-2024", "role": "Continuing displacement and delayed returns support investigating a multiweek window, not a measured mean duration." }, { "id": "S7", "title": "WHO. Mental health in emergencies. Fact sheet, 6 May 2025.", "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/mental-health-in-emergencies", "role": "Qualitative basis for distress inclusion. Neither numeric intensity nor transfer from pain is established; conflict-specific disorder prevalence is not used." }, { "id": "S8", "title": "WSI catalogue v0.2: USU reference convention (unchanged from v0.1).", "url": "/events/methodology/#reference", "role": "Stipulated six-hour kidney-stone reference: 47.25 modeled intensity-hours, with linear weighting. This convention defines the unit; it is not a measured equivalence between conditions." }, { "id": "S9", "title": "WHO. Disease Outbreak News: Dengue: Bangladesh. 11 August 2023.", "url": "https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON481", "role": "69,483 laboratory-confirmed cases and 327 related deaths, 1 January–7 August 2023. Describes hospital-based surveillance." }, { "id": "S10", "title": "UNHCR. Appeal for communities devastated by Pakistan floods. Briefing note, 7 October 2022.", "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/au/news/briefing-notes/unhcr-urgently-seeks-us-66-million-communities-devastated-pakistan-floods", "role": "Approximately 7.9 million people displaced and at least 1,700 deaths. Describes continuing disruption; no measured average duration or intensity." } ], "revisionDate": "2026-10-05", "siteVersion": "2.10.5" }