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Published pilotCumulative across reported episodesP2 - evidence-informed mapping

Reported Dengue in the Americas, 2025

Regional evidence with an Experimental Cumulative USU Pilot Estimate

Series IDWSI-DEN-AMR-2025
Geographic scopeAmericas region
Time basisCumulative across reported episodes
Primary sourcePan American Health Organization (PAHO)
Read the 2-minute briefFull research report

In two minutes

Source evidence4.46 million suspected dengue episodes

8,966 severe cases and 2,207 reported deaths

Experimental WSI estimate45.4 million USU

Deterministic mapping range: 18.2-95.5 million USU

Main insightThe modeled total is driven mainly by the large number of non-severe episodes; severe episodes contribute about 0.49% of central burden.
Time basisCumulative across reported episodes

Epidemiological weeks 1-53 of 2025

Why this series matters

Dengue provides a straightforward episode-based example: an official regional case total, a small severe subset, and clinically interpretable duration ranges.

WSI separates reported severe cases from non-severe episodes, assigns approved intensity and duration scenarios to each state, and sums the resulting intensity-time burden.

Experimental USU result

Central experimental estimate45.4 million USUCumulative across reported episodes
Deterministic mapping range18.2-95.5 million USUApproved low and high scenarios; not a confidence interval.
Experimental USU pilot estimate. The source directly reports the stated population, episodes, or severity categories. WSI applies provisional intensity and, where applicable, duration mappings to estimate linear intensity-time burden and expresses that burden relative to the declared renal-colic reference. Mortality is excluded from USU and shown separately when the source supplies a comparable measure.

What the model adds

  • Adds explicit intensity and duration assumptions to the reported episode count.
  • Shows how the regional total is distributed between non-severe and severe episodes.
  • Expresses the modeled intensity-time burden in one experimental reporting unit.

How to interpret it

  • The estimate covers reported surveillance episodes, not every dengue infection.
  • It is regional and does not authorize a country ranking.
  • The P2 mappings are evidence-informed but not patient-elicited overall suffering scores.
  • The 2,207 reported deaths remain separate from USU.
Model assumptions at a glance

Non-severe: intensity 4/5/6 for 2/4/7 days. Severe: intensity 6/7/8 for 4/7/14 days. Linear p=1; no overlap; mortality separate.

Mapping maturity: P2 - evidence-informed mapping.

Mortality: 2,207 reported deaths are shown separately and excluded from USU.

Read more

Reports and methods

2-minute public brief

A two-page summary of the evidence, experimental estimate, main finding, and limits.

Public Brief

Full research report

The full report includes source context, approved mappings, results, and interpretation.

Full Report

For technical readers: research methods and assumptions (PDF).