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Published pilotCumulative episode burdenP2 - evidence-informed

Reported Dengue in the Americas, 2025

Regional evidence with an Experimental Cumulative USU Pilot Estimate

Series IDWSI-DEN-AMR-2025
Geographic scopeAmericas region
Time basisEpidemiological weeks 1-53 of 2025
Primary sourcePAHO
Source evidenceWSI modelUSU resultWhat the model addsDownloads
What the source reports

Evidence retained before modeling

4,459,521Suspected cases
1,682,588Confirmed cases
8,966Severe cases
2,207Reported deaths
What WSI models

Approved experimental pilot specification

StateLowCentralHigh
Non-severe symptomatic dengueIntensity 4; duration 2 daysIntensity 5; duration 4 daysIntensity 6; duration 7 days
Severe dengueIntensity 6; duration 4 daysIntensity 7; duration 7 daysIntensity 8; duration 14 days

The pilot uses p=1, no overlap adjustment, and mortality outside the USU calculation. The state mappings are versioned research assumptions, not source-provided suffering scores.

Experimental USU result
Central experimental estimate45.4 million USUCumulative modeled burden across reported episodes
Deterministic mapping range18.2-95.5 million USUApproved low and high scenarios; not a confidence interval.
Experimental USU pilot estimate. The source directly reports the stated population, episodes, or severity categories. WSI applies provisional intensity and, where applicable, duration mappings to estimate linear intensity-time burden and expresses that burden relative to the declared renal-colic reference. The deterministic mapping range reflects approved low, central, and high scenarios, not a confidence interval. Mortality is excluded from the pilot USU calculation and is shown separately when the source supplies a comparable mortality measure.

Mortality treatment: 2,207 reported deaths are shown separately and excluded from USU.

What the model adds

Interpretation beyond the source indicators

Adds duration and intensityThe central model converts 4.46 million reported episodes into 17.9 million episode-days and 89.5 million raw intensity-days.
Shows which state drives the totalSevere episodes contribute about 0.49% of central modeled burden because they are rare in the regional surveillance total.
Adds a common reporting unitReference normalization expresses the raw burden as USU but does not create new information.
Does not create a country rankingA canonical complete 2025 country extract was not archived, so country modeled ranks remain unauthorized.
Interpretation and limits
  • The source is surveillance data and does not represent every dengue infection.
  • The P2 mappings are evidence-informed but not patient-elicited overall suffering scores.
  • Post-acute fatigue and persistent symptoms are excluded.
  • The result is regional, not country-level.
Reports and methods

Download the complete public record

The public report provides the accessible narrative. The technical note and mapping notes document the calculation and assumptions.

Read reportTechnical methodsNon-severe mappingSevere mapping