Published pilotP2 - evidence-informed mapping
Dengue in the Americas
Regional evidence with an Experimental Cumulative USU Pilot Estimate
45.4 million USU
Deterministic mapping range: 18.2-95.5 million USU
Research Series
Four pilot series using the same experimental USU framework
The portfolio covers infectious disease, acute humanitarian food insecurity, child nutrition, and globally calibrated food-insecurity experience data. Each report separates the source evidence from the experimental model and explains the limits on interpretation.
| Series | Source evidence | Experimental USU result | Main insight | Time basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dengue in the Americas WSI-DEN-AMR-2025 | 4.46 million suspected dengue episodes | 45.4 million USU Range: 18.2-95.5 million USU | The modeled total is driven mainly by the large number of non-severe episodes; severe episodes contribute about 0.49% of central burden. | Cumulative across reported episodes |
| Acute food insecurity WSI-AFI-CH-2026-01 | 52.3 million people in Crisis or worse | 109 million USU/day Range: 82.5-136 million USU/day | Phase 3 accounts for 92.1% of central modeled burden, and the country ordering remains the same as the simpler Phase 3+ source counts. | One-day equivalent burden rate |
| Child wasting WSI-CW-JME-2024-01 | 42.8 million children affected by wasting | 55.9 million USU/day globally Range: 27.9-83.8 million USU/day globally | Severe wasting contributes 44.4% of central modeled daily burden despite accounting for about 28.5% of the global wasting total. | One-day equivalent burden rate |
| FIES food insecurity WSI-FIES-2023-2025-v1.0 |
125 complete FAOSTAT FIES country or territory prevalence records | 2.66 million annualized USU per 100,000 Median range: 263,721-5,732,063 |
Duration assumptions dominate the annualized scenario scale; no country ranking is published. | Representative average-year annualized scenario |
Do not rank these four headline values against one another. Dengue is cumulative, two pilots are one-day equivalent rates, and the FIES pilot is a retrospective annualized scenario per 100,000. Source universes and model maturity differ.
Pilot research series
Published pilotP1 - early illustrative mapping
Acute food insecurity
Harmonized severity evidence with an Experimental Daily-Equivalent USU Pilot Estimate
109 million USU/day
Deterministic mapping range: 82.5-136 million USU/day
Published pilotP1 - early illustrative mapping
Child wasting
Global and regional evidence with an Experimental Daily-Equivalent USU Pilot Estimate
55.9 million USU/day globally
Deterministic mapping range: 27.9-83.8 million USU/day globally
Published pilotP2 - evidence-informed mappingD1 - illustrative duration
FIES food insecurity
Country evidence with an Experimental Retrospective Annualized USU Scenario
2.66 million USU per 100,000
Median deterministic range: 263,721-5,732,063 USU per 100,000
How to read the labels
Pilot label definitions
Experimental USU Pilot Estimate
The result applies provisional assumptions to public source data. It is not a validated measurement of total suffering.
Deterministic mapping range
The range comes from approved low and high scenarios, not from a statistical confidence interval.
P1 - early illustrative mapping
An author-defined starting assumption that can be reviewed and revised.
P2 - evidence-informed mapping
A mapping informed by relevant empirical or clinical evidence, but not yet fully calibrated.
D1 - illustrative duration: the days-at-severity values are transparent WSI scenarios rather than durations measured by the source.