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Published pilotOne-day equivalent burden rateP1 - early illustrative mapping

Acute Food Insecurity Across 14 Cadre Harmonisé Countries, June-August 2026

Harmonized severity evidence with an Experimental Daily-Equivalent USU Pilot Estimate

Series IDWSI-AFI-CH-2026-01
Geographic scopeAnalyzed populations in 14 Cadre Harmonisé countries
Time basisOne-day equivalent burden rate
Primary sourceIPC-CH Dashboard / Cadre Harmonisé
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In two minutes

Source evidence52.3 million people in Crisis or worse

2.81 million in Emergency or worse; coverage ranges from 20% to 100%

Experimental WSI estimate109 million USU/day

Deterministic mapping range: 82.5-136 million USU/day

Main insightPhase 3 accounts for 92.1% of central modeled burden, and the country ordering remains the same as the simpler Phase 3+ source counts.
Time basisOne-day equivalent burden rate

Displayed June-August 2026 period

Why this series matters

This series applies one daily-equivalent model to three source-defined severity phases.

WSI applies one-day intensity scenarios to the source populations classified in Phase 3, Phase 4, and Phase 5, then sums the daily intensity-time burden.

Experimental USU result

Central experimental estimate109 million USU/dayOne-day equivalent burden rate
Deterministic mapping range82.5-136 million USU/dayApproved low and high scenarios; not a confidence interval.
Experimental USU pilot estimate. The source directly reports the stated population, episodes, or severity categories. WSI applies provisional intensity and, where applicable, duration mappings to estimate linear intensity-time burden and expresses that burden relative to the declared renal-colic reference. Mortality is excluded from USU and shown separately when the source supplies a comparable measure.

What the model adds

  • Combines Phase 3, 4, and 5 populations within a common daily-equivalent unit.
  • Shows how much each severity phase contributes to the modeled total.
  • Makes clear that, in this subset, the USU layer changes magnitude but not country ordering.

How to interpret it

  • The result is a one-day equivalent rate, not a June-August cumulative total.
  • Counts refer to analyzed populations, not necessarily complete national populations.
  • The P1 phase mappings are author-defined pilot assumptions, not IPC or CH suffering scores.
  • Mortality and other co-occurring harms are not converted into USU.
Model assumptions at a glance

Phase 3: intensity 3/4/5. Phase 4: 5/6/7. Phase 5: 7/8/9. One-day duration; linear p=1; no overlap; mortality separate.

Mapping maturity: P1 - early illustrative mapping.

Mortality: Mortality is excluded from USU; no directly comparable death total is presented for the subset.

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Reports and methods

2-minute public brief

A two-page summary of the evidence, experimental estimate, main finding, and limits.

Public Brief

Full research report

The full report includes source context, approved mappings, results, and interpretation.

Full Report

For technical readers: research methods and assumptions (PDF).