Source lock closed. Seven exact official files were validated, inspected, reconciled, and hashed. This standalone package is release-cleared.
CHILD AND MATERNAL MORTALITY

# A falling rate can still mean millions of deaths

Child and maternal mortality have declined, but counts, age-specific probabilities, a live-birth ratio, shares, and lifetime risk answer different questions.

Under-five deaths, 2024 4.86 million 90% UI: 4.69-5.21 million
Maternal deaths, 2023 260,000 80% UI: 230,000-308,000
Core rule Do not add them Different years, populations, and measurement systems

Main takeaway. Progress is real, but it must be read through measures with explicit periods, populations, denominators, and uncertainty. No combined child-plus-maternal total is created.

01

## Six measures, three different questions

Six cards separate counts, probabilities, and the maternal live-birth ratio. The denominator changes the question; it does not merely rescale the same number.

The chart separates counts from probabilities and from the maternal ratio. It states that neonatal deaths are included in under-five deaths and that child 2024 and maternal 2023 counts must not be added.
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02

## A falling rate can still mean millions of deaths

The global under-five mortality rate fell 60% between 1990 and 2024. The estimated number of under-five deaths fell 63%, yet 4.86 million deaths remained in 2024.

Both measures declined, by 60 percent for the rate and 63 percent for the count. The rate compares risk relative to live births while the count shows total scale. Error bars show 90 percent uncertainty intervals.
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03

## The first 28 days are a larger share of under-five deaths

Neonatal deaths fell, but more slowly than deaths later in childhood. Their share of under-five deaths rose from about 40% to 47%. Neonatal deaths are inside the under-five total.

Neonatal deaths fell from 5.22 million to 2.27 million while total under-five deaths fell from 12.97 million to 4.86 million. Neonatal deaths are a subset of under-five deaths and are not added on top.
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04

## Progress in child survival slowed after 2015

The source-reported annual rate of reduction in under-five mortality fell from 3.9% in 2000-2015 to 1.5% in 2015-2024; neonatal mortality slowed from 3.0% to 1.3%.

The later reduction pace was less than half the earlier pace for both measures. These are source-reported trend statistics and do not by themselves identify a cause.
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05

## Maternal mortality fell, but the pace required for 2030 is much faster

The global maternal mortality ratio declined from 328 in 2000 to 197 in 2023. Reaching below 70 by 2030 would require a 14.8% annual reduction during 2024-2030 - a required scenario, not a forecast.

The estimated ratio uses 80 percent uncertainty intervals. The required 2024 to 2030 pace is a target-consistent scenario, not a forecast. Separate cards show maternal deaths falling from 443,000 to 260,000 and adult lifetime risk improving from 1 in 130 to 1 in 272.
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06

## Rates and counts can tell different regional stories

Regional rates compare risk relative to live births, while counts show scale. The same region can look different under the two measures. Child 2024 and maternal 2023 remain separate.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest displayed rates and counts, while other regions shift position depending on whether risk or total deaths are shown. The display is not numbered as a ranking. Child and maternal panels use different years and uncertainty conventions.
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MEASURES GUIDE

## Which measure answers which question?

### Under-five deaths

Estimated count of deaths before exact age 5 during a year.

### Under-five mortality rate

Probability of dying before exact age 5, expressed per 1,000 live births.

### Neonatal deaths

Estimated count during the first 28 days; a subset of under-five deaths.

### Neonatal mortality rate

Probability of dying in the first 28 days, per 1,000 live births.

### Maternal deaths

Estimated count of deaths from maternal causes in the reference year.

### Maternal mortality ratio

Maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, not a percentage or child mortality rate.

### Adult lifetime risk

Probability that a 15-year-old woman will eventually die from a maternal cause; it reflects fertility and competing mortality as well as MMR.

Non-additivity. Neonatal deaths are already included within under-five deaths. U5MR and NMR are not additive. Child 2024 and maternal 2023 counts are not combined. Child intervals are 90%; maternal intervals are 80%.
SOURCES AND METHODS

## Official estimates, kept in their own measurement systems

Child results use the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, Levels & Trends in Child Mortality - Report 2025, with estimates through 2024 and 90% uncertainty intervals. Maternal results use the WHO-led MMEIG report Trends in maternal mortality estimates 2000 to 2023, with 80% intervals.

Regional panels use the eight principal SDG regions. Source-native global and regional aggregates are used independently; rounded regional values are not forced to reproduce world totals.

Source lock. Seven exact official machine-readable files were validated, inspected, reconciled, and hashed. Visual Brief v1.1 applies three source-native maternal corrections: 443,000 maternal deaths in 2000; a 2000 MMR 80% interval of 309–349; and a 2023 maternal-death upper bound of 308,000.

Visual Brief PDF Media summary Methods note Accessible data tables