{
  "modelVersion": "0.1",
  "checkedOn": "2026-10-10",
  "country": "Democratic Republic of the Congo",
  "intervention": "Insecticide-treated net campaigns",
  "distributionPeriod": "2027–29",
  "benefitHorizon": "Three years after each modeled distribution; effects may extend beyond 2029",
  "population": "Under-five malaria incidence; mortality rate for ages 1–59 months applied to the source under-five population",
  "status": "already_funded_worked_example",
  "additionalFundingVerified": false,
  "costBasis": "Full modeled delivery costs, including procurement and delivery and domestic government resources. Source-year USD, no inflation adjustment. Not the total national campaign budget or a marginal-donation estimate.",
  "effectBasis": "Core program-model outcomes before final grantee, funding-displacement and supplemental outcome adjustments",
  "source": {
    "title": "GiveWell ITN CEA [DRC 2027–29], 2026 public model",
    "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ud2BUyRTxOMK2DgI8XM0SeDQLjv7snCacluPpkoaB-0/edit",
    "tab": "Main CEA",
    "column": "K (DRC)",
    "downloadSha256": "f96636e22ccbea293f7281d2679ccf373ad4db950e7e9c828b29cfe1343d60ca"
  },
  "grantSource": {
    "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/Against-Malaria-Foundation-ITN-Campaigns-in-DRC-in-2027-2029-May-2026",
    "title": "GiveWell, AMF ITN campaigns in DRC 2027–29, May 2026 grant, published August 2026"
  },
  "sourceFacts": [
    {
      "label": "Full cost per net delivered",
      "value": 4.95,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K28",
      "unit": "USD/net"
    },
    {
      "label": "People targeted per net",
      "value": 1.8,
      "cell": "Main CEA!H35",
      "unit": "people/net"
    },
    {
      "label": "Under-five share of target population",
      "value": 0.1549727233,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K50",
      "unit": "fraction"
    },
    {
      "label": "Year 1 expected incidence and mortality reduction",
      "value": 0.2760480807,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K88",
      "unit": "fraction"
    },
    {
      "label": "Year 2 expected incidence and mortality reduction",
      "value": 0.1282576019,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K92",
      "unit": "fraction"
    },
    {
      "label": "Year 3 expected incidence and mortality reduction",
      "value": 0.04291177467,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K96",
      "unit": "fraction"
    },
    {
      "label": "Adjusted incidence without ITNs",
      "value": 1.006405514,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K122",
      "unit": "episodes/child-year"
    },
    {
      "label": "Adjusted direct and indirect mortality without ITNs",
      "value": 0.008762998972,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K107",
      "unit": "deaths/child-year"
    },
    {
      "label": "Indirect deaths per direct death",
      "value": 0.5687,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K99",
      "unit": "ratio"
    },
    {
      "label": "Mortality effect / incidence effect",
      "value": 1.0,
      "cell": "Main CEA!H83",
      "unit": "ratio"
    },
    {
      "label": "Full modeled spending for the scaled example",
      "value": 291589543.3,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K16",
      "unit": "USD"
    },
    {
      "label": "Modeled under-five episodes prevented",
      "value": 7395818.973,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K128",
      "unit": "episodes"
    },
    {
      "label": "Modeled under-five direct and indirect deaths prevented",
      "value": 64397.05782,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K110",
      "unit": "deaths"
    },
    {
      "label": "Modeled under-five target population",
      "value": 16432154.77,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K55",
      "unit": "children"
    },
    {
      "label": "Grant size",
      "value": 276000000.0,
      "cell": "Main CEA!H8",
      "unit": "USD"
    },
    {
      "label": "Program-output adjustment",
      "value": -0.2206534809,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K246",
      "unit": "relative change"
    },
    {
      "label": "Final mortality adjustment",
      "value": -0.2284469461,
      "cell": "Main CEA!K252",
      "unit": "relative change"
    }
  ],
  "deathDecomposition": "Divide direct-plus-indirect deaths by (1 + indirect/direct ratio). This assumes the source mortality adjustments preserve that ratio. Assign one complete fatal course per direct death prevented.",
  "excluded": [
    "Ages 5 and older",
    "Indirect deaths",
    "Net-related adverse effects",
    "Long-term complications",
    "Caregiver suffering",
    "Bereavement",
    "Lost life years",
    "GiveWell moral weights and income valuations"
  ],
  "comparisonLimits": [
    "SMC ages 3–59 months versus net-model under-five population",
    "Seasonal SMC round versus three-year net benefit horizon",
    "2025 SMC cost model versus 2026 ITN cost model, not inflation-standardized",
    "Different disease-risk models, periods and intervention baselines",
    "Full household-net program costs charged while only under-five benefits counted"
  ],
  "profiles": {
    "version": "0.1",
    "referenceIntensityHours": 47.25,
    "hoursPerDay": 24,
    "profiles": {
      "lower": [
        2,
        2,
        2,
        3
      ],
      "central": [
        4,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "higher": [
        7,
        4,
        7,
        7
      ]
    },
    "scope": "Complete acute nonfatal and fatal malaria courses; provisional time-average intensities. Death itself and bereavement excluded."
  },
  "calculation": {
    "budgetUSD": 1000,
    "fullCostPerNetUSD": 4.95,
    "netsDeliveredEquivalent": 202.02020202020202,
    "underFivePopulationEquivalent": 56.353717563636366,
    "benefitHorizonYears": 3,
    "annualRiskReductions": [
      0.2760480807,
      0.1282576019,
      0.04291177467
    ],
    "sumOfAnnualRiskReductions": 0.44721745726999995,
    "directMalariaMortalityWithoutNets": 0.005586153485051317,
    "episodesPrevented": 25.363800386538575,
    "directDeathsPrevented": 0.14078428620712863,
    "nonfatalEpisodesPrevented": 25.223016100331446,
    "scenarios": {
      "lower": {
        "nonfatalDays": 2,
        "nonfatalIntensity": 2,
        "fatalDays": 2,
        "fatalIntensity": 3,
        "nonfatalUSUPerEpisode": 2.0317460317460316,
        "fatalUSUPerEpisode": 3.0476190476190474,
        "nonfatalUSUAverted": 51.24676287051468,
        "fatalUSUAverted": 0.42905687225029676,
        "usuAverted": 51.67581974276498
      },
      "central": {
        "nonfatalDays": 4,
        "nonfatalIntensity": 3,
        "fatalDays": 4,
        "fatalIntensity": 5,
        "nonfatalUSUPerEpisode": 6.095238095238095,
        "fatalUSUPerEpisode": 10.158730158730158,
        "nonfatalUSUAverted": 153.74028861154403,
        "fatalUSUAverted": 1.4301895741676558,
        "usuAverted": 155.1704781857117
      },
      "higher": {
        "nonfatalDays": 7,
        "nonfatalIntensity": 4,
        "fatalDays": 7,
        "fatalIntensity": 7,
        "nonfatalUSUPerEpisode": 14.222222222222221,
        "fatalUSUPerEpisode": 24.88888888888889,
        "nonfatalUSUAverted": 358.7273400936028,
        "fatalUSUAverted": 3.503964456710757,
        "usuAverted": 362.23130455031355
      }
    }
  }
}