{
  "as_of": "2026-10-09",
  "status": "program_benchmark",
  "geography": "Chad",
  "period": "2026-2027",
  "population": "3-59 months; under-5 incidence proxy inherited from source",
  "source_facts": [
    [
      "Cost per monthly SMC cycle",
      1.9298367,
      "Main CEA!J28",
      "USD"
    ],
    [
      "Mean cycles in a seasonal round",
      4.666167,
      "Main CEA!J29",
      "cycles"
    ],
    [
      "Annual malaria incidence, under 5",
      0.45928,
      "Main CEA!J74",
      "episodes / child-year"
    ],
    [
      "Share occurring in the SMC season",
      0.7,
      "Main CEA!J56",
      "fraction"
    ],
    [
      "Reduction among children receiving SMC",
      0.7936949983,
      "Main CEA!J47",
      "fraction"
    ],
    [
      "Annual direct malaria mortality, 3-59 months",
      0.002932651202,
      "Main CEA!J50",
      "deaths / child-year"
    ],
    [
      "Vaccine adjustment to mortality",
      -0.06,
      "Main CEA!J53",
      "signed relative change"
    ],
    [
      "Grant amount",
      10427075,
      "Main CEA!J8",
      "USD"
    ],
    [
      "All-contributor costs",
      11556759.45,
      "Main CEA!J16",
      "USD"
    ],
    [
      "Seasonal child-rounds delivered",
      1283379.904,
      "Main CEA!J36",
      "child-seasons"
    ],
    [
      "Modeled episodes prevented, under 5",
      327479.7512,
      "Main CEA!J82",
      "episodes"
    ],
    [
      "Modeled direct and indirect deaths prevented",
      3439.800323,
      "Main CEA!J58",
      "deaths, under 5"
    ],
    [
      "Indirect deaths per direct death",
      0.75,
      "Main CEA!H51",
      "ratio"
    ],
    [
      "Mortality effect / incidence effect",
      1,
      "Main CEA!H48",
      "ratio"
    ],
    [
      "Published full cost per child-round",
      9.004940325,
      "Main CEA!J30",
      "USD"
    ],
    [
      "Published grantee cost per child-round",
      8.124698673,
      "Main CEA!J31",
      "USD"
    ]
  ],
  "sources": [
    [
      "S1",
      "GiveWell SMC CEA, 2025 version 3",
      "Retrieved 9 Oct 2026",
      "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-wRh8CVwcCXWfvn4-n-A5owWG2LsbNuo0pGWLoqGd54/edit"
    ],
    [
      "S2",
      "GiveWell Chad expansion grant",
      "Published Sep 2025",
      "https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/Malaria-Consortium-SMC-Expansion-in-Chad-June-2025"
    ],
    [
      "S3",
      "WHO malaria fact sheet",
      "Updated 4 Dec 2025",
      "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malaria"
    ],
    [
      "S4",
      "Pediatric treatment trial, Nigeria",
      "BMC Infectious Diseases, 2025",
      "https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-11704-w"
    ],
    [
      "S5",
      "Willcox et al., severe febrile illness",
      "PLOS ONE, 2014",
      "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0102530"
    ],
    [
      "S6",
      "AMF funding update",
      "24 Aug 2026; checked 9 Oct",
      "https://www.againstmalaria.com/News.aspx"
    ],
    [
      "S7",
      "GiveWell net campaigns grant",
      "Dec 2024 grant; checked 9 Oct",
      "https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/against-malaria-foundation-support-for-itn-campaigns-in-chad-drc-nigeria-and-zambia-december-2024"
    ]
  ],
  "usu_reference_intensity_hours": 47.25,
  "profiles": {
    "lower": [
      2,
      2,
      2,
      3
    ],
    "central": [
      4,
      3,
      4,
      5
    ],
    "higher": [
      7,
      4,
      7,
      7
    ]
  },
  "modelVersion": "0.1",
  "publicationStatus": "worked_example",
  "fundingStatus": "already_funded",
  "additionalFundingVerified": false,
  "costBasis": "All-contributor program costs; USD as modeled in the 2025 source, not inflation-adjusted to 2026",
  "effectBasis": "Gross modeled acute malaria episodes averted; drug side effects unestimated",
  "uncertainty": "Mapping-only scenarios, not confidence intervals or full uncertainty bounds",
  "calculation": {
    "budgetUSD": 1000,
    "fullCostPerChildSeasonUSD": 9.0049403249289,
    "childSeasons": 111.05015290680404,
    "episodesPrevented": 28.336641661805967,
    "directDeathsPrevented": 0.17008229632540112,
    "nonfatalEpisodesPrevented": 28.166559365480566,
    "scenarios": {
      "lower": {
        "nonfatalDays": 2,
        "nonfatalIntensity": 2,
        "fatalDays": 2,
        "fatalIntensity": 3,
        "nonfatalUSUPerEpisode": 2.0317460317460316,
        "fatalUSUPerEpisode": 3.0476190476190474,
        "nonfatalUSUAverted": 57.227295218754165,
        "fatalUSUAverted": 0.5183460459440795,
        "usuAverted": 57.74564126469824
      },
      "central": {
        "nonfatalDays": 4,
        "nonfatalIntensity": 3,
        "fatalDays": 4,
        "fatalIntensity": 5,
        "nonfatalUSUPerEpisode": 6.095238095238095,
        "fatalUSUPerEpisode": 10.158730158730158,
        "nonfatalUSUAverted": 171.6818856562625,
        "fatalUSUAverted": 1.727820153146932,
        "usuAverted": 173.40970580940942
      },
      "higher": {
        "nonfatalDays": 7,
        "nonfatalIntensity": 4,
        "fatalDays": 7,
        "fatalIntensity": 7,
        "nonfatalUSUPerEpisode": 14.222222222222221,
        "fatalUSUPerEpisode": 24.88888888888889,
        "nonfatalUSUAverted": 400.5910665312791,
        "fatalUSUAverted": 4.233159375209984,
        "usuAverted": 404.8242259064891
      }
    }
  }
}