{
  "id": "amf-future",
  "version": "0.1",
  "checkedOn": "2026-10-11",
  "nextFundingReview": "2026-11-10",
  "title": "AMF malaria prevention: provisional future-funding estimate",
  "costBasis": "USD 1,000 received by AMF, using a grant-equivalent cost basis with source co-funding and displacement assumptions. Payment fees and tax effects excluded.",
  "population": "Young-child acute malaria. Source under-five population with ages 1-59 months mortality proxy.",
  "benefitHorizon": "Three years following a distribution. Future locations and distribution dates unassigned.",
  "source": {
    "title": "GiveWell ITN CEA [DRC 2027-29], 2026 public model",
    "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ud2BUyRTxOMK2DgI8XM0SeDQLjv7snCacluPpkoaB-0/edit?gid=1266854728",
    "retrievedOn": "2026-10-11",
    "workbookSHA256": "45a0cd15b4fda5046fa3ed5826ffb49d09db72113d25aa99848a29a470b5b1d9",
    "sheet": "Main CEA",
    "column": "K (DRC)",
    "grantStatus": "Approved May 2026; already funded. Used only as an analytical reference."
  },
  "grantURL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/Against-Malaria-Foundation-ITN-Campaigns-in-DRC-in-2027-2029-May-2026",
  "allocationURL": "https://www.againstmalaria.com/Distribution_Allocations.aspx",
  "donationURL": "https://www.againstmalaria.com/Donation.aspx",
  "sourceFacts": [
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!H8",
      "label": "Grant size",
      "value": 276000000.0
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K16",
      "label": "Total spending by all contributors",
      "value": 291589543.3
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K99",
      "label": "Indirect malaria deaths per direct malaria death",
      "value": 0.5687
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K110",
      "label": "Total deaths averted among people under age 5",
      "value": 64397.05782
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K128",
      "label": "Malaria cases averted among people under age 5 in the 3-year period following a distribution",
      "value": 7395818.973
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K244",
      "label": "Total supplemental grantee-level adjustment",
      "value": -0.12
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K245",
      "label": "Leverage and funging adjustment for counterfactual impact estimates",
      "value": -0.1143789556
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K246",
      "label": "Overall adjustment for program outputs",
      "value": -0.2206534809
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K250",
      "label": "Total supplemental intervention-level adjustment affecting lives saved",
      "value": -0.01
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K252",
      "label": "Overall adjustment for program outcomes",
      "value": -0.2284469461
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K255",
      "label": "Total nets distributed that wouldn't have been distributed otherwise",
      "value": 45908948.61
    },
    {
      "cell": "Main CEA!K259",
      "label": "Total lives saved that wouldn't have been saved otherwise",
      "value": 67412.87916
    }
  ],
  "futureScenarios": {
    "lower": {
      "effectMultiplier": 0.5,
      "costMultiplier": 1.25,
      "label": "Lower"
    },
    "central": {
      "effectMultiplier": 0.75,
      "costMultiplier": 1,
      "label": "Central"
    },
    "higher": {
      "effectMultiplier": 1,
      "costMultiplier": 0.8,
      "label": "Higher"
    }
  },
  "judgments": [
    "Apply K246 proportionally to acute cases. GiveWell publishes it as a program-output adjustment, not a separate adjusted case estimate.",
    "Apply K252 to young-child direct deaths and retain K99 direct-to-indirect ratio after adjustments. This is a WSI decomposition.",
    "Future effect multipliers 0.50/0.75/1.00 and cost multipliers 1.25/1.00/0.80 are WSI scenario choices, not measured portfolio averages or confidence limits.",
    "Central effect is reduced 25% from the DRC reference because DRC is an unusually high-burden setting and future allocations are unknown. The exact discount is judgment, not an estimated country ratio.",
    "Effect multiplier jointly represents differences in burden, realized prevention and allocation from the already-adjusted reference. Cost multiplier varies the grant-equivalent resources required for that benefit.",
    "Public net donations are provisionally treated as having the same impact per dollar as the reference grant after its co-funding and other-funder adjustments. Future delivery and co-funding must materialize. Do not additionally multiply by the full-cost/net-price ratio.",
    "Shared malaria courses v0.1 and 47.25 intensity-hours per USU are WSI assumptions. Fatal courses replace ordinary courses."
  ],
  "formulas": {
    "referenceCasesPerBudget": "K128 * (1 + K246) * budgetUSD / H8",
    "referenceDirectDeathsPerBudget": "K110 / (1 + K99) * (1 + K252) * budgetUSD / H8",
    "futureCasesOrDeaths": "referenceValue * effectMultiplier / costMultiplier",
    "usu": "((cases - directDeaths) * nonfatalDays * 24 * nonfatalIntensity + directDeaths * fatalDays * 24 * fatalIntensity) / 47.25"
  },
  "fundingSnapshot": {
    "status": "Provider-reported program-level funding need",
    "checkedOn": "2026-10-11",
    "url": "https://www.againstmalaria.com/AMFFundingGap.aspx",
    "pageSHA256": "8505bd13ffaa0fd11f34d5c90f8e89a68e0e810b5e35659ce79fb00dc9f255a0",
    "immediateGapUSD": 43830000,
    "overallGapRoundedUSD": 219000000,
    "availableToCommitRoundedUSD": 136350000,
    "programsSeekingFundingRoundedUSD": 180190000,
    "pipelineTable": [
      [
        "",
        "Distribution Proposal",
        "# Nets",
        "Cost/net",
        "Cost of nets",
        "Non-netcosts",
        "Monitoring cost per net",
        "Monitoringcosts",
        "Total cost",
        "Balance",
        "% funded",
        "Able to befunded?"
      ],
      [
        "A",
        "Programme 1",
        "15.10m",
        "$2.00",
        "-$30.20m",
        "-$0.00m",
        "$0.15",
        "-$2.27m",
        "-$32.47m",
        "103.89m",
        "100",
        "Yes"
      ],
      [
        "A",
        "Programme 2",
        "15.10m",
        "$0.00",
        "-$0.00m",
        "-$16.60m",
        "$0.00",
        "-$0.00m",
        "-$16.60m",
        "87.29m",
        "100",
        "Yes"
      ],
      [
        "P",
        "Programme 3",
        "9.60m",
        "$2.00",
        "-$19.20m",
        "-$0.00m",
        "$0.20",
        "-$1.92m",
        "-$21.12m",
        "66.17m",
        "100",
        "Yes"
      ],
      [
        "P",
        "Programme 4",
        "10.00m",
        "$2.00",
        "-$20.00m",
        "-$0.00m",
        "$0.20",
        "-$2.00m",
        "-$22.00m",
        "44.17m",
        "100",
        "Yes"
      ],
      [
        "P",
        "Programme 5",
        "11.20m",
        "$2.00",
        "-$22.40m",
        "-$0.00m",
        "$0.20",
        "-$2.24m",
        "-$24.64m",
        "19.53m",
        "100",
        "Yes"
      ],
      [
        "P",
        "Programme 6",
        "12.70m",
        "$2.00",
        "-$25.40m",
        "-$0.00m",
        "$0.20",
        "-$2.54m",
        "-$27.94m",
        "-$8.41m",
        "70",
        "Partial"
      ],
      [
        "P",
        "Programme 7",
        "16.10m",
        "$2.00",
        "-$32.20m",
        "-$0.00m",
        "$0.20",
        "-$3.22m",
        "-$35.42m",
        "-$43.83m",
        "0",
        ""
      ],
      [
        "Σ",
        "89.80m",
        "",
        "-$149.40m",
        "-$16.60m",
        "",
        "-$14.19m",
        "-$180.19m",
        ""
      ]
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "Source marked Currently updating and retains older background text. Values are a dated snapshot, not a live balance or independent funding audit.",
      "The detailed table places the remaining gap in two anonymous provisional programs. Countries and campaign dates are not public in that table.",
      "Rounded source components do not exactly reconcile. No extra calculation precision is implied.",
      "No campaign reservation, earmarking agreement or direct organizational confirmation. The DRC reference grant is already funded."
    ]
  },
  "exclusions": [
    "Ages 5 and older",
    "Indirect deaths",
    "Long-term complications",
    "Income effects",
    "Caregiver distress and bereavement",
    "USU for death itself or lost life-years",
    "Net-related adverse effects are unestimated"
  ],
  "interpretation": "Provisional WSI program-level scenario, not a GiveWell USU estimate, portfolio forecast, observed impact or verified effect of a particular donation. Gross acute-malaria benefit only. Scenario outcomes are not statistical bounds; actual impact can fall outside them or be much lower if delivery or additionality fails.",
  "profiles": {
    "version": "0.1",
    "referenceIntensityHours": 47.25,
    "hoursPerDay": 24,
    "profiles": {
      "lower": [
        2,
        2,
        2,
        3
      ],
      "central": [
        4,
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "higher": [
        7,
        4,
        7,
        7
      ]
    },
    "scope": "Complete acute nonfatal and fatal malaria courses; provisional time-average intensities. Death itself and bereavement excluded."
  },
  "calculation": {
    "modelVersion": "0.1",
    "checkedOn": "2026-10-11",
    "budgetUSD": 1000,
    "costBasis": "USD 1,000 received by AMF, using a grant-equivalent cost basis with source co-funding and displacement assumptions. Payment fees and tax effects excluded.",
    "referenceGrant": {
      "episodesPrevented": 20.88371656703365,
      "directDeathsPrevented": 0.11475796589439394,
      "centralUSUAverted": 127.7575428731728
    },
    "scenarios": {
      "lower": {
        "effectMultiplier": 0.5,
        "costMultiplier": 1.25,
        "label": "Lower",
        "episodesPrevented": 8.35348662681346,
        "directDeathsPrevented": 0.04590318635775757,
        "nonfatalEpisodesPrevented": 8.307583440455703,
        "nonfatalDays": 2,
        "nonfatalIntensity": 2,
        "fatalDays": 2,
        "fatalIntensity": 3,
        "nonfatalUSUPerEpisode": 2.0317460317460316,
        "fatalUSUPerEpisode": 3.0476190476190474,
        "nonfatalUSUAverted": 16.87889968854492,
        "fatalUSUAverted": 0.13989542509030878,
        "usuAverted": 17.01879511363523
      },
      "central": {
        "effectMultiplier": 0.75,
        "costMultiplier": 1,
        "label": "Central",
        "episodesPrevented": 15.662787425275239,
        "directDeathsPrevented": 0.08606847442079546,
        "nonfatalEpisodesPrevented": 15.576718950854444,
        "nonfatalDays": 4,
        "nonfatalIntensity": 3,
        "fatalDays": 4,
        "fatalIntensity": 5,
        "nonfatalUSUPerEpisode": 6.095238095238095,
        "fatalUSUPerEpisode": 10.158730158730158,
        "nonfatalUSUAverted": 94.94381074806518,
        "fatalUSUAverted": 0.87434640681443,
        "usuAverted": 95.8181571548796
      },
      "higher": {
        "effectMultiplier": 1,
        "costMultiplier": 0.8,
        "label": "Higher",
        "episodesPrevented": 26.104645708792063,
        "directDeathsPrevented": 0.14344745736799241,
        "nonfatalEpisodesPrevented": 25.961198251424072,
        "nonfatalDays": 7,
        "nonfatalIntensity": 4,
        "fatalDays": 7,
        "fatalIntensity": 7,
        "nonfatalUSUPerEpisode": 14.222222222222221,
        "fatalUSUPerEpisode": 24.88888888888889,
        "nonfatalUSUAverted": 369.2259306869201,
        "fatalUSUAverted": 3.570247827825589,
        "usuAverted": 372.7961785147457
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "Provisional WSI program-level scenario, not a GiveWell USU estimate, portfolio forecast, observed impact or verified effect of a particular donation. Gross acute-malaria benefit only. Scenario outcomes are not statistical bounds; actual impact can fall outside them or be much lower if delivery or additionality fails."
  }
}